A Prediction of Falling Cost of Solar Power

I found this article published in Scientific American in 2011:
"Smaller, Cheaper, Faster:  Does Moore's Law Apply to Solar Cells?" by Ramez Naam.
This could be directly relevant to points that we want to make to Austin Energy about their 10-year generating plans.  The article compares the rate of the drop in cost per KWH for photovoltaic power generation to the way computing power has increased exponentially.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/?print=true

Here is an except--the last two paragraphs of the article.  The author does conclude that the cost is dropping exponentially:

"We should always be careful of extrapolating trends out, of course. Natural processes have limits. Phenomena that look exponential eventually level off or become linear at a certain point. Yet physicists and engineers in the solar world are optimistic about their roadmaps for the coming decade. The cheapest solar modules, not yet on the market, have manufacturing costs under $1 per watt, making them contenders – when they reach the market – for breaking the 12 cents per Kwh mark.

The exponential trend in solar watts per dollar has been going on for at least 31 years now. If it continues for another 8-10, which looks extremely likely, we’ll have a power source which is as cheap as coal for electricity, with virtually no carbon emissions. If it continues for 20 years, which is also well within the realm of scientific and technical possibility, then we’ll have a green power source which is half the price of coal for electricity."

     From:  Susan Lippman